European Commission — Eurostat, 21 May 2026

List of the nationalities for which the percentage of first-instance decisions granting international protection is 20% or lower. This is the statistical datum that triggers the ground for accelerated examination laid down in Article 42(1), point (j), of Regulation (EU) 2024/1348 and, through Article 45, the mandatory border procedure: it is therefore the operational document to which the “determinations” of the Territorial Commissions ordering the special procedures refer.

The document specifies that the rate is calculated as the ratio between recognition decisions (refugee status or subsidiary protection) and the total number of first-instance decisions, that the reference aggregate is the EU excluding Denmark and that the aggregate was compiled exclusively for the purposes of Regulation (EU) 2024/1348, in order to determine eligibility for the accelerated examination procedure under Article 42(1), point (j). The data were extracted from the online database on 21 May 2026 and refer to the year 2025; the document warns that the data published online may differ because of subsequent corrections and revisions transmitted by national providers.

The non-absolute nature of the presumption is moreover written into point (j) itself, which preserves the cases in which the determining authority assesses that the situation in the third country has undergone a significant change, or that the applicant belongs to a category of persons whose protection needs make it impossible to regard as representative a rate of 20% or lower, also taking into account the significant differences between first-instance and final decisions — aspects on which, according to the Court of Bologna, the burden of allegation and proof lies with the determining authority.